At the weekend, two Opec producers indicated that prices hovering well above $40 a barrel looked likely to stave off any decision to slash output at least until the cartel's next official meeting March 16.
The prospect of steady output from the cartel until spring could mean continued increases in fuel stockpiles in the United States, the world's largest energy consumer, where unseasonably mild weather is already cooling demand for heating oil.
"We will wait until March (for any output decision)," Algeria's Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil said on Saturday.
Opec President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah reiterated that ministers would need to discuss taking action if prices moved sharply in either direction or if commercial oil inventories climbed too sharply.
"Until now, I don't think there's any need for any consultations," Sheikh Ahmad, also Kuwaiti oil minister, told reporters on Saturday. "Our worry is not now; our worry is the second quarter," said Sheikh Ahmad.
Opec, which controls 40 percent of world oil exports, has been wary of a springtime decline in global demand.
Winter supply fears are ending well-before the season amid forecasts that the heavy-consuming US Northeast may have already endured the worst cold.
Several private forecasters are calling for warmer than usual conditions to prevail in February and March, limiting use of heating oil.
"Although nearly two months of climatic winter remain ahead of us, the market already has its attention elsewhere," said SG Commodities in a report.
Traders are increasingly focused on the second-quarter demand slump and, beyond that, the gasoline-driven boost in the summer, with higher motor fuel stockpiles raising hopes that the United States may avert a spring price spike for the first time in two years.
US crude oil inventories are running about nine percent above last year while gasoline stocks are up by about four percent over last year, according to government data.
Adding to the bearish outlook, Iraq expects to restart its northern oil export pipeline in five or six days, ending a stoppage of more than seven weeks due to sabotage.
The pipeline to Turkey has been idle since December 18, forcing Iraq to rely entirely for exports on seaborne shipments from the southern oil terminal of Basra. Baghdad exported around 1.43 million barrels per day in January, down from 1.50 million bpd in December.
SINGAPORE: US crude oil futures fell 41 cents to $46.07 a barrel in early Asian trade, looking at a possible retest of last Thursday's three-week low at $45.75.